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09/07/2010 -
They didn't need to dust off the ol' Statue of Liberty play, never thought of pulling off a fake punt.
Save those for, say, Jan. 10 in Arizona. That may be the only time this season that Boise State has to dig into its bag of tricks.
OK, so the hugely entertaining win over Virginia Tech doesn't exactly guarantee the Broncos a spot in the BCS title game. There are still lots of games to play, even more polls to take, and a lot more debating to do.
But after yet another sterling performance on a national stage one thing is clear: Boise State is a grown up football team now, and maybe it's time to start treating them as such.
The voters in the Associated Press Top 25 poll already do, rewarding Boise with a No. 3 ranking. The teams they will face with a giant bulls eye on their backs the rest of the season certainly will.
And if the Broncos run the table in the regular season for a third straight year, the people running the BCS surely better.
This isn't the little team that could anymore. This is a big team that really can.
The Broncos had just 60 minutes Monday night to prove they weren't just pretenders. An hour of football to state their case or spend the rest of the season as an afterthought on gaudy blue turf.
They needed almost every second of it to win a thriller over Virginia Tech that was so big many Boise State players celebrated by taking a victory lap around FedEx Field.
``Certainly we're proving people right right now,'' quarterback Kellen Moore said.
Probably winning a lot of fans along the way, too. Say what you will about their weak schedule, but the Broncos always seem to find a way to step it up when it really matters and are certainly a lot more fun to watch than the two teams ahead of them in the national rankings.
The fun this time took place on the road before 86,587 mostly hostile fans. Up early, behind late, Boise State found a way to come back and win on a touchdown pass to Austin Pettis with 1:09 remaining.
A team that first gained national attention with trick plays that beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl also showed it can play football the old-fashioned way, too, more than holding its own in the trenches against a tough and physical opponent.
Indeed, the Broncos answered every question except the one about their schedule. They had to, because they will have no other chance.
Their coach tried to downplay it all along, insisting it was just one game in a long season. But the players, college students that they are, were too smart for that.
They certainly understood the difference between the BCS title game and the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl that one lucky Western Athletic Conference team will be in this year.
``We know how much was at stake for us, so it was kind of like a bowl game,'' Pettis said.
Whether the win over No. 10 Virginia Tech will be enough to keep the Broncos in the national title chase despite their weak schedule will be debated endlessly over the upcoming weeks by the talking heads on television. Oregon State is really the only team left on the schedule with an outside chance of an upset and the Beavers have to play in Boise, where the Broncos just don't lose.
So Boise State will run up the score on Wyoming, and try to win style points by blowing out New Mexico State. They'll need to win big against teams that have nothing to lose by trying to pull their own big upsets.
They'll have to satisfy both the voters and the computers, and they can't afford to let anyone even play them close.
``We're heading off to Wyoming, and it's going to be the biggest game at Wyoming ever,'' Moore said. ``That's the way it goes, and that's the way we like it. We like to be everyone's biggest game.''
In years past, beating up on bad teams would have gotten them a pat on the back and a conference title. The competition simply wasn't good enough for Boise to move all the way up in the polls.
That changed this year, though, which is what made the game against the Hokies so big. Boise came in as the No. 3 ranked team in the country, just behind Alabama and Ohio State, two teams with a lot more football pedigree.
The Broncos don't need to climb. All they need to do is tread water and hope that the two teams ahead of them can't make it through much tougher schedules undefeated.
Nothing terribly tricky about that.
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Tim Dahlberg is a national sports columnist for The Associated Press. Write to him at tdahlberg(at)ap.orgCopyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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